Insight: Sales grew 916% from 15,290 units at launch (Nov 2025) to a peak of 155,390 in Jul 2026; the 3 month(s) since then declined 17.0% as average temperatures fell from 37.2 to 31.2 °C. Moving Avg forecasts 136,103 units for Nov 2026 (+5.5% vs Oct 2026) and 408,310 over the next 3 month(s), with a 95% range of 68,999 to 203,208 in the first month.
Preparing the analysis of the live results...
- Scope
- All markets
- History
- 12 months
- Hold-out
- 3 months
- Next month
- Nov 2026
Insight: Moving Avg is the most accurate model on the hold-out (WAPE 3.1%); planning with it instead of Naive would have saved AED 51,484 on the test months.
| Month | Forecast | 95% range | Safety stock | Produce | Temp / promo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 136,103 | 68,999 to 203,208 | 56,317 | 192,500 | 27.2 °C |
| Dec 2026 | 136,103 | 41,203 to 231,004 | 79,644 | 215,800 | 22.2 °Cpromo |
| Jan 2027 | 136,103 | 19,874 to 252,332 | 97,543 | 233,700 | 20.2 °C |
| Total | 408,310 | 233,504 | 642,000 |
Insight: Producing 642,000 units over 3 month(s) covers the forecast of 408,310 plus 233,504 units of safety stock for a 95% service level. Safety stock grows each month because uncertainty compounds with the horizon (sigma x sqrt(h)).
Insight: Dubai takes the largest share (42.1%) based on the share of units in Aug 2026, Sep 2026, Oct 2026, so it should receive about 57,323 of the 136,103 units forecast for Nov 2026; the smallest market, Al Ain, needs 14,223.